The Ramifications of a Modern Era Pandemic

The classrooms at Mwea Brethren School, which once resonated with the sound of children learning, are now filled with a cacophony of clucking chickens.

Uncertainty is a word that best describes the COVID-19 pandemic. In its wake of destruction, it has amplified deep-seated injustices and inequalities across the globe. From inundating healthcare systems to unprecedented socio-economic impacts, it has meticulously pulverized the world economy, resulting in the worst global recession in a century.

Kenya is a country in East Africa with the largest economy. It is bordered onto the southeast by the Indian Ocean, where its principle seaport is located, the Kilidini Harbour, which is naturally deep, well-watered, with sixteen deep-water births, safe anchorages and mooring buoys for sea-going ship and two oil terminals. This port is the main gateway into Kenya and the East African landlocked countries of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, DRC and Southern Sudan. (4AllPorts, 2015)

On 13 March 2020, Kenya confirmed its first COVID-19 case (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) in the country. This came after the World Health Organization declared the virus a global health emergency on 30 January 2020. Immediately, the Kenyan shilling plummeted against the US dollar, forcing the Nairobi Stock exchange to close. Right away, the National Government through the Ministry of Health imposed a raft of measures to contain the virus. The Government enacted curfews, lockdowns and closure of all educational institutions, hotels and bars across the country, which translated into the loss of desperately needed incomes and livelihoods as well as food insecurity, movement and travel disruptions, decreasing incomes, closed borders and disturbance of the supply chain.

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

The Central Bank of Kenya, through a recent National Economic Survey report indicated that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) constitute 98% of all businesses in Kenya, creating 30% of all jobs annually and contributing to 3% of GDP (Charles 2017) SMEs provide precarious jobs with insecure incomes and a lack of decent work conditions. Even though they sustains many households with daily wages, most struggle to eke out a living. The government of Kenya defines these small and medium-sized enterprises as businesses that engage between one and ninety-nine employees, cover a range of establishments in almost all sectors of the economy; operate formally or informally, seasonally or year round and are located in a number of areas including markets, streets, households or mobile locations (Kinuthia, 2020).

Matatu Sub-sector

The matatu sector is infamous for overcrowding, speeding, flaunting traffic rules and the constant, notorious harassment by traffic police. Not only has it suffered the wrath of the pandemic but it also threatens to jeopardize all milestones achieved in containing the virus. One measure imposed is that all public vehicles ought to observe social distancing between passengers by carrying only 60% of the capacity of their vehicles. (Irandu 2020). This means that a 30-seater minibus is expected to carry 16 passengers, a vehicle that would previously cram in passengers to make extra money.

This has resulted in the introduction of new COVID-19 compliance seat arrangements by most Saccos’ across the country. The idea is to increase capacity while observing the one-meter rule restriction. This is a better deal, as these mini-buses (Figure 3) will be able to carry more passengers in compliance with the new directives. They are more spacious and comfortable, with ease of movement within and a flow of clean fresh air due to the spacing between seats. I’d be remiss not to mention that this has minimized airborne transmission of infection spread through exposure to virus-containing respiratory droplets comprised of smaller droplets and particles that can remain suspended in the air over long distances (usually greater than 6 feet) and time (typically hours) (CDC 2020)

Locust Invasion

Figure 4- A local farmer runs through a swarm of desert locusts to chase them away – (Credits-Kenya (ANSA)

Swarms of crop-eating locusts are crossing through East Africa, causing food insecurity and threatening livestock in the worst invasion in 70years (Merlo 2020). The locusts are affecting the Northern region of the country and aggravating food insecurity, which will threaten about three million people and undermine economic growth, in an already marginalized area grappling with food and water scarcity. In the midst of resounding economic shocks, this will have a significant impact on human capital, as people forgo investments in adequate food, nutrition and education. Increasing food prices will debilitate food consumption in poorer households and push them towards less nutritious foods as well as eating the next season’s seed, selling off productive assets, withdrawing children from school and other coping mechanisms to meet these short-term needs. (World Bank 2020). This in turn, will be felt by the small mama mboga businesses’ that depend on selling groceries, ultimately affecting the local consumers through a surge in food prices even as 86% of Kenyans are already worried about not having enough to eat (Mboya 2020).

Schools and Colleges

As Kenya grapples with graft, many businesses are disproportionately impacted. Private schools in the country solely depend on school fees, meaning that in the past eight months there has been no stable income. Around 124 private schools and some colleges are already permanently closed while others are on the verge of closure.

The classrooms at Mwea Brethren School, which once resonated with the sound of children learning, are now filled with a cacophony of clucking chickens. On the chalkboard, maths equations have been replaced by a vaccination schedule. Joseph Maina, who owns the central Kenyan school, has turned to nurturing animals to earn some money (BBC 2020). The closure of schools for the past seven months has forced many schools to send their staff packing -“with about 95% of the more than 300,000 private-school staff members sent on unpaid leave,” KPSA Chief Executive Peter Ndoro says.

Hospitality Sector

The hospitality industry is the white elephant in the room. Suffering from pay cuts to unpaid leaves to restricted opening hours. In compliance with the raft of COVID-19 measures, introduction of new screening guidelines has hits this sector hard. On Monday 27 July 2020, during his national presidential briefing to the country, the President ordered the indefinite closure of bars nationwide amid concerns that bars, entertainment joints and lounges were operating in violation of the COVID-19 restrictions. This came after a spike in COVID-19 cases with Sunday, 26 July recording 960 new COVID-19 cases, the single highest recorded spike in the country (Muraya). “I said that I will not hesitate to re-escalate again if reckless behaviour is widespread. There shall be no sale of alcoholic beverages or drinks in eateries and restaurants across the territory of the Republic of Kenya effective midnight today for the next 30 days,” Kenyatta explained._ “-Bars shall remain closed until further notice. The Inspector General of Police shall withdraw all licenses for bars operating in breach of this directive and withdrawals shall be permanent,” the president ordered. This announcement dealt a blow to restaurants, which had been serving alcoholic drinks with new guidelines now prohibiting the sale of liquor in eateries_-Furthermore, the president adjusted the operational time for restaurants from between 8 pm to 7pm. (Mueni 2020).

Conclusion

With our backs to the wall, the emotional toll is rampant; many are on the verge of poverty. Pulverized businesses with precarious financial footings are faced with the uncertainties of an already dire situation. The economic consequences will have far greater impact on the long-term health, wellbeing and poverty levels of the population than the predicted fatalities caused directly by the disease. Sectors worst hit by the virus include the labor force, housing, transportation, health, trade and tourism. The supply and demand for goods and services in these sectors is significantly hampered. While many businesses are permanently closing, some are blooming from the opportunities provided by the pandemic. Furthermore, the restriction of movement in and out the country has dwindled the revenues from the tourism and aviation sectors, while delays at the border due to the testing of truck drivers have resulted in massive profit losses for business owners (Owino 2020).