by The East African Federation (EAF) is the vision of a united African state composed of six East African Community (EAC) Member Nations. This community currently has Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda as members, with the DRC (upon approval) as the seventh, making a total population of 195 million.[1] The establishment of this federation would result in a landmass of over 2.5 million square kilometres, making it the largest in Africa, in which the largest city would be Dar es Salaam with 7 million people. At present, the GDP of the EAC stands at $224 billion, ranking 49th in the world with a per capita GDP of $1,150. Could this be Africa’s first superpower?
Reasons for hope
East Africa has been the fastest-growing region in Africa for decades. Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda have each had 5, 6 and 7% growth respectively in 2010 until the pandemic. Collectively, the EAC’s GDP has grown 92% from $106 billion in 2010 to $204 billion in 2019.
The EAC embodies modern cooperation with an old history. Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania were united as a colony in 1919 under the British empire before transitioning into the East African Community in 1967, which at the time used the East African shilling and standard external tariffs.[2] This was subject to collapse in 1997 following diversity in the political system, including dictatorship under Idi Amin, socialism under Mwalimu Nyerere and capitalism under Mzee Kenyatta. In 1999, the community was revived under the EAC Treaty with a four-step plan:
- Customs Union
- Common Market
- Monetary Union
- Political Federation
The motivations behind this were numerous, seeing that there is a shared cultural identity and that even semi-autonomous states can be part of a greater union. A similar dominant tropical savanna climate has been noted within the community, which lends itself to similar agricultural and seasonal practices. At present, the lingua franca is English but was recently changed to Swahili, which is spoken by about 200 million persons in Africa.[3]
Strides to unity
Many have posited that religion is key to political and social stability in any union, with the most widespread religion in this region being Christianity. 140 million Christians live within the EAC, comprising roughly 78% of the population. The second most significant religious identity within the community is Islam. This is important because the split of South Sudan from the Republic was a key part of their annexation and is easily seen as a separation of the Christian and Muslim populations from the former country. Ensuring the stability of the region will no doubt require cooperation from both faiths and their adherents.
The first African superpower?
The leading strength this federation would have if properly harnessed is its massive youth demographic. The EAF would have a median age of 17.8 years and ensuring these youths are on the path towards economic independence is vital to the success of the federation. Several plans are in place to ensure the right infrastructure is in place. Mombasa is the largest seaport in the region and a massive economic and cultural hub that services the interior, which will be dwarfed by the $22 billion Lamu port, expected to be the biggest in Africa upon completion. The continued expansion of all airports in the region and attraction to international investors is on a steady rise. The federation’s proposed capital is Arusha in Tanzania, with a population of around 400,000 people. The city has served as a centre for diplomacy for several years, and was where the civil war in Rwanda was brought to an end through the peace and reconciliation agreement. Even when the SPLM party was near collapse, the agreement for South Sudan was settled in Arusha. The city is fairly central in the federation and has served as the headquarters of the East African Community.[4]
It is from Arusha that much progress has been made. The Customs Union was established in 2005, and Rwanda and Burundi joined the community in 2007. The 2010 East African Common Market Protocol was intended to foster an open market zone to improve the exchange of people, goods, services and capital within the community. Zero tariffs and minimal duties have shown promise within the region. Having this backed by the East African shilling will no doubt raise the region’s monetary strength.[5]
Teething problems
The Common Market still has further to go, as imports that undercut local businesses are often denied entry to neighbouring markets. Kenya has locked out Ugandan milk, timber, sugar and maize. South Sudan joined in 2016 and the Republic of Sudan also sought entry in 2011, but was denied for poor relations with South Sudan and Uganda. In 2013 all member states committed to progressively unite monetarily by harmonizing their monetary and fiscal policies, while Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda simultaneously unveil their national budgets in June. This union is still quite far off. Seeing how differently each currency performs, convergence will be difficult since each nation still has its own currency and seems to benefit or be short-changed depending on their current fiscal strength.
There are plans to fast-track the daunting political federation alongside the monetary union. In 2018, a committee from the six Member States was set up to draft a regional constitution to be unveiled in 2022 for ratification in 2023. Should the addition of the DRC to the federation be approved, the area of the federation would double, making it the 7th largest and 4th most populous region in the world after the USA, with a population of 285 million people. DRC has a GDP per capita of $500 making it among the poorest in the world, however, its resources and a port on the Western coast of Africa would provide the EAC with the potential to determine the path of development for sub-Saharan Africa.[6]
However as mentioned above, there is much to be done. Citing underfunding and political tension between Burundi and Uganda, Rwanda boycotted talks in 2021 claiming that the two countries supported opposition political movements in Rwanda. Failed talks in October 2021 also show how complex this final leg is proving to be.[7] Poverty is still a major issue to be addressed in the community. It is no doubt a worthy vision for the continent-wide pan-African federation to truly realize the potential of Africa rising to determine her own fate.
| References |
|---|
| EAC. East African Community Annual Report 2014-2015. East African Community, 2016, http://repository.eac.int/handle/11671/24334. |
| EAC. Overview of EAC, East African Community, 2018, https://www.eac.int/overview-of-eac#:~:text=The%20EAC%20is%20home%20to,over%2022%25%20is%20urban%20population. |
| EAC. Towards Political Federation in the East African Community: Achievements and Challenges. East African Community, 2014, https://www.eac.int/documents/category/political-federation. |
| Ikuya, James Magode. “Why the Current Clamor for East African Federation Cannot Produce Unity.” Development, vol. 60, no. 3-4, 2017, pp. 197–200, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41301-018-0163-8. |
| Kasaija, PA. “Regional Integration: A Political Federation of the East African Countries?” African Journal of International Affairs, vol. 7, no. 1-2, 2010, https://doi.org/10.4314/ajia.v7i1-2.57213. |
| Martin, Rhys. “East African Federation Looks Set for Further Delay.” Global Risk Insights, 20 Mar. 2021, https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/. |
| Owaka, Simon. 21st Ordinary Meeting of the Summit of the EAC Heads of State Postponed, East African Community, 2022, https://www.eac.int/press-releases/1626-21st-ordinary-meeting-of-the-summit-of-the-eac-heads-of-state-postponed. |
[1] Overview of EAC, East African Community, 2018.
[2] Martin, Rhys. “East African Federation Looks Set for Further Delay.” Global Risk Insights, 2021.
[3] Kasaija, PA. “Regional Integration: A Political Federation of the East African Countries?” African Journal of International Affairs, 2010.
[4] Kasaija, PA. “Regional Integration: A Political Federation of the East African Countries?” African Journal of International Affairs, 2010.
[5] Ikuya, James Magode. “Why the Current Clamor for East African Federation Cannot Produce Unity.” Development, 2017.
[6] Owaka, Simon. 21st Ordinary Meeting of the Summit of the EAC Heads of State Postponed, EAC, 2022.
[7] Martin, Rhys. “East African Federation Looks Set for Further Delay.” Global Risk Insights, 2021.
